Spot aluminum prices continue to fall on the 27th
On October 27, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 20,610 yuan/ton, which was 14.98% lower than the average market price on October 19 of 24,240 yuan/ton.
The current aluminum price has fallen below the previous high and fluctuating operating range. Based on the average market price of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) of 15,726.67 yuan/ton, the benchmark price has increased by 31.05%.
Aluminum price turning on the 19th, the coal factor should not be underestimated
The recent sharp drop in coal prices has strongly impacted the market sentiment in the non-ferrous sector, especially the market quotations of aluminum ingots and large electricity users. Speculative positions in the futures market are cleared, driving the linkage of spot prices, and aluminum prices have been declining recently.
Recently, social inventories of aluminum ingots have risen countercyclically, and aluminum ingot prices have continued to fall. In the early stage, the price of aluminum was indeed high, and the downstream undertaking was weak, and the fear of high was strong. There was a certain momentum and room for aluminum prices to fall.
Aluminum prices have been continuously reduced by 14.98%, floating profits have dropped sharply, and cost factors have begun to become prominent.
The price of raw alumina soared, and the cost of ton of aluminum rose
According to the data of the business agency, the specific regional prices of aluminum oxide spot contracts of Aluminum Corporation of China Co., Ltd. on October 27, 2021 are as follows:
The external quotation in Shandong is 4150 yuan/ton, the quotation in Henan is 4150 yuan/ton, the quotation in Shanxi is 4150 yuan/ton, the quotation in Guizhou is 3950 yuan/ton, and the quotation in Guangxi is 3900 yuan/ton.
Compared with the price of alumina three months ago, the price of alumina in various regions on July 13, 2021 spot contract is as follows:
The external quotation of Shandong area is 2,450 yuan/ton, Henan area is 2,450 yuan/ton, Shanxi area is 2,450 yuan/ton, Guizhou area is 2,400 yuan/ton, and Guangxi area is 2,400 yuan/ton.
Alumina prices in various regions have risen as high as 69.4%, 69.4%, 69.4%, 64.58%, 62.5% in the past three months. Although the downstream aluminum price has plunged sharply, the alumina price is still high for the following reasons:
Zhengzhou City issued the "Notice on Starting Zhengzhou City’s 2021 Peak Winter Ⅲ-level Rotation and Rotation Scheme" on October 15. The company), as one of the 64 "double high" enterprise users issued by the Provincial Development and Reform Commission, will stop production. It is reported that the annual production capacity of alumina in Henan Province is 12.85 million tons, and the output of alumina in 2020 will be 8.67 million tons, accounting for 13% of the national alumina output. Superimposed overseas alumina is also expected to reduce production, and the price is high. According to customs import data, China imported 394,100 tons of alumina in August, a decrease of 25.19% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 49.85%. The cumulative imports from January to August were 2,332,300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.95%.
The prices of alumina and pre-baked anodes have risen simultaneously in the early stage. The cost of aluminum per ton in some electrolytic aluminum plants using thermal power is approaching 19,500 yuan/ton, while the cost of aluminum in Southwest Hydropower is slightly lower, roughly estimated at 17500-19000 yuan/ton.