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Ethyl Alcohol Market Is Weak and volatile

April 10, 2023

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic ethyl alcohol market is weak and volatile. From March 31st to April 7th, the domestic ethyl alcohol price fell from 7,016 RMB/ton to 6,991 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.36% during the cycle, a decrease of 2.80% month on month, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.06% in price. Production enterprises mainly focus on consolidation after falling, with weak downstream demand and insufficient actual orders. The market atmosphere is more wait-and-see.

Analysis review

On the cost side, on April 7th, the benchmark price of corn for SunSirs was 2,747.14 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.47% compared to the beginning of this month (2,760.00 RMB/ton). The arrival volume of corn in the production area continues to increase, coupled with a large amount of imported corn arriving at the port, the company's corn inventory is relatively sufficient, and the overall supply of domestic corn market is more relaxed, resulting in a continuous decline in the corn market. The cost side of ethyl alcohol is negative.

On the supply side, the overall ethyl alcohol market has been operating steadily at operating load, with the main plant area operating at reduced load. It is expected that the load will decrease in the later stage, and the supply will decrease. The production of some units in northern Jiangsu is under low load, and the overall supply is stable. The Guannan unit is shut down, the Jinchanglin unit is shut down, and the Changxing and Maibohui units in southern Jiangsu are started up. The negative impact of ethyl alcohol supply has increased.

On the demand side, the demand of Baijiu and chemical industry is flat, and the overall chemical market is dominated by losses, just maintaining purchases on demand. There is a possibility of maintenance for ethyl acetate in April. Ethyl alcohol demand is bearish in the short term.

Market outlook

Cost support is insufficient, and downstream demand is mainly in need. Ethyl alcohol analysts from SunSirs predict that in the short term, the domestic ethyl alcohol market will be in a weak consolidation state.