Futures: Soybean oil 2109 surpassed and fell on Monday, closing at 9006 (up 74), totaling more than 2 thousand Masukura lots, and trading volume increased. Top 20 capital flows: Long positions are dispersed to increase and decrease positions, and positions are slightly reduced, and concentration is fine-tuned; short positions are dispersed and positions are adjusted, and positions are slightly increased, and concentration is fine-tuned. The tight U.S. soybean stocks affected the squeeze. U.S. soybean oil stocks were low. The planting area of U.S. soybeans was lower than expected last week. The futures prices of U.S. soybean oil continued to reach new highs, and the overall strength remained strong. The Fed released the signal to withdraw from the macro easing, and bulk commodities are under pressure as a whole; palm oil is currently in the inventory increase cycle, and domestic soybean oil inventories have rebounded slightly, but the low inventory year-on-year still supports low soybean oil prices. Affected by the external market, soybean oil opened sharply higher in the early trading and then gradually fell back. In the late trading, funds were lightened. Short-term or high-level pressure and fluctuations were under pressure. Pay attention to the initiative of key funds, and pay attention to external market trends and changes in market expectations.
Strategic analysis: The current high-level regulation and control plan to do a good job of ensuring the supply and price stability of bulk commodities, maintaining stable economic operation, policy adjustments affect the differentiation of commodities, foreign markets, supply and demand, and market sentiment factors comprehensively affect the market. On the supply side, the planting area of US soybeans was lower than expected last week. The low US soybean stocks affected the squeeze to support soybean oil prices. Domestic soybean arrivals continued to increase. This year, China's imports of US soybeans may reach a new high. In terms of demand, soybean oil inventories have rebounded from the low level, but the profit margin is still low, limiting the rate of inventory recovery. U.S. soybean crush was lower than expected in April. In the long run, the tight supply and demand pattern of U.S. soybeans will continue, and soybean oil as a whole tends to be high and volatile. Operational reference: if the market is oversold to an important support zone, you can choose the opportunity to place multiple orders, and after a sharp increase, you can lighten up or hedge.
Market strategy: Soybean oil 2109 is under short-term or high pressure and fluctuates, pay attention to the initiative of key funds. Short-term operation: close the position and wait and see. If the market goes down and stabilizes in the 8700-8850 area, you can consider the wet storage to test more. If the market is under pressure in the 9100-9250 area, you can consider the wet storage to test empty. Swing operation: close the position and wait and see. If the market drops and stabilizes in the 8650-8800 area, you can consider placing more orders on the band. If the market rises significantly above 9200, you can consider reducing more and flattening more. Key short-term positions: 8900, 9100.
Market news: USDA: As of May 16, the US 21/22 soybean planting progress was 61%, the fastest record in the same period in history and 60% higher than market expectations. USDA: The US soybean crush in April was lower than expected. In April this year, the US soybean crush was 5.0956 million tons (170 million bushels), a decrease of 9.8 percentage points from March and a decrease of 7.4% from April last year. As of the end of April, US soybean oil inventories fell from 1.771 billion pounds in the previous month to 1.702 billion pounds, lower than expected, and 2.111 billion pounds in the same period last year. Brazil's Ministry of Commerce and Trade: As of May 17, Brazil’s average daily export volume of soybeans in May was 880,000 tons, an increase of 25% from the same period last year, but slowed down from the first week of May, when the average export volume on Sunday exceeded 900,000 tons. The reference price of Malaysian crude palm oil exports in May was set at 4533.4 ringgit/ton, higher than April's 4331.48 ringgit/ton. According to Malaysian government regulations, when the price of crude palm oil is between 2250-2400 ringgit/ton, a 3% export tax will be imposed. When the price exceeds 3450 ringgit/ton, the export tax will reach the cap of 8%.