1. Price data
According to the data of the SunSirs block list, the price of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries continued to rise. The average price of the Shandong market on May 30 was 2302.00 RMB/ton, down 2.81% from the average price of 2368.67 RMB/ton on May 24. On May 30, the oil coke commodity index was 179.05, flat with yesterday, down 2.81% from the highest point of 184.23 (2021-05-25) in the cycle, and up 167.68% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: The period refers to 2012-09-30 till now)
2. Analysis of Influencing Factors
This week, the storage of locally refined petroleum coke was high, and the price continued to fall. The downstream demand for low sulfur coke is poor, and the price continues to be weak. Refinery maintenance is about to start, some refinery inventory is high, and the price of medium and high sulfur coke continues to fall.
Upstream: the international oil price rose sharply, and the US Iran negotiation process still affected the market sentiment. However, due to the storm in the Gulf of Mexico that may lead to the closure of oil fields, and the disagreement on Iran's lifting sanctions negotiations, the international oil price rose for a time.
Downstream: the price of raw materials has fallen, the cost pressure of carbon enterprises has decreased, and the recent strict environmental supervision may affect the operating rate of enterprises; The price of calcined coke declined; As of May 30, the price of electrolytic aluminum in the lower reaches rose to 18830.00 RMB/ton; The silicon metal market is affected by the supply and demand factors recently, and the price rises and falls with each other.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the SunSirs, in the list of commodity prices in the 21st week of 2021 (5.24-5.28), 8 kinds of commodities in the energy sector rose month on month, including 1 kind of commodity that rose more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; The top three commodities were WTI crude oil (5.14%), Brent crude oil (4.15%) and liquefied natural gas (0.87%). Six kinds of commodities declined on a month-on-month basis, and the top three products were steam coal (- 4.86%), petroleum coke (- 2.81%), and liquefied gas (- 1.35%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.16%.
According to the petroleum coke analysts of SunSirs, the early inspection and repair plants have started in succession, the storage of local petroleum coke is high, the refinery goes out of stock at the end of the month, the price is reduced, and the environmental protection and carbon neutralization factors affect the overall prediction that the petroleum coke may go down shortly.