According to the monitoring of SunSirs, in December, the domestic adipic acid market bottomed out and rebounded, mainly because of the good support from the supply side. At the end of the month, the market price range of adipic acid was 9,800-10,000 RMB/ton. Adipic acid increased by 3.73% during the month.
Adipic acid industry chain
Adipic acid industry chain showed a weak performance this month, with the exception of adipic acid, upstream and downstream were mainly down. Pure benzene was weak and fluctuated, with a small range of rise and fall. The performance of downstream PA66 was relatively weak, with a significant decline of -6.45%. The terminal demand was weak, and the industrial chain was resonant and downward.
From the perspective of market supply, the rebound of adipic acid in this month was mainly driven by tight supply. The monthly operating rate of enterprises remained low, about 50%. In the month, Tianli Gaoxin reduced the load of its devices, Zhonghao added a set of devices to the maintenance camp, and in addition, a large number of maintenance devices had not been returned to work in the early stage, the operating rate was lower than that in November, the enterprise's inventory was low, and the supply was slightly tight. The supplier supported the price to push the market, and the collection price and listing price of large factories were generally increased by 500 RMB/ton.
On the cost side, crude oil maintained a range shock trend, while pure benzene showed a weak trend, with weak support on the cost side. This month, the domestic supply of pure benzene was abundant, the import was also high, and the port inventory was high. Downstream demand was relatively low, the procurement side was still sluggish, and the pattern of market oversupply had not changed. At the end of the month, the price of pure benzene in East China was between 6,400-6,500 RMB/ton.
The downstream demand of adipic acid was weak, and maintained the rigid demand mainly. Take the downstream PA66 as an example. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the downstream PA66 declined significantly in December, at -6.45%. In terms of supply, the operating rate of PA66 remained around 65%, and the market supply was abundant. Weak demand was hard to change. This month, the terminal enterprises followed up to purchase the goods just on demand , and the enthusiasm for downstream goods preparation was not high. Influenced by the psychology of buying up but not buying down, they were also relatively cautious about the price reduction, and the merchants were not able to ship smoothly. As of the end of the month, the market price of PA66 was 21,800 RMB/ton.
SunSirs believes that, in the short term, the cost may be supported by the strong operation of crude oil or the promotion of pure benzene out of the decline in the later period under the geopolitical tension. The positive supply side will gradually highlight, the supply will continue to be tight, the inventory will be low, and the manufacturer may continue to push the price, so the adipic acid market still has room for rebound. However, the demand side may be a constraint factor. At present, the follow-up is relatively slow. Under the situation of supply and demand game, adipic acid may tend to be stronger in shock in the near future.