In 2022, the market of ammonium chloride will rise first, then fall, and rebound at the end of the year. According to the monitoring of the business community, the low price is 957 RMB/ton in November, and the high price is 1590 RMB/ton in June, with an amplitude of 66.14%; As of December 29, the price was 1145 RMB/ton, up 4.57% from the beginning of the year.
Driven by cost and stimulated by urea substitution, the market of ammonium chloride basically rose and fell in the same direction as that of liquid ammonia and urea. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of liquid ammonia rose by 21.32% from January to May; The price of urea rose by 28.33%. On the one hand, the cost of ammonium chloride rose, on the other hand, the price of urea rose sharply, and downstream compound fertilizer and other enterprises switched to ammonium chloride more, stimulating the price of ammonium chloride to rise from 1095 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year to 1590 RMB/ton in June, up 45.21%.
Supply side: In 2022, the start of soda production will be between 60% and 90% on the whole. In the first half of the year, the average start will be slightly higher than 70%. The supply side will be relatively tight, with higher costs and spring cultivation demand. In the first half of the year, the price of ammonium chloride will rise; In the middle of the year, affected by high temperature and power rationing, the start of soda ash production was once as low as 60%, but at this time, the demand returned to a low level, the superimposed cost fell, and the price of ammonium chloride fell sharply; Although the cost continued to rise from September to the end of the year, the downstream demand of ammonium chloride in the early stage was sluggish, and the supply side was improved, the price was consolidated at a low level; Later, with the start of winter storage at the end of the year, the demand increased significantly, and the price of ammonium chloride rose again.
In 2022, the export volume of ammonium chloride for fertilizer in China will decline year on year, which will restrain the upward range of ammonium chloride to some extent.
Future market forecast:
According to the 7-30K line chart of ammonium chloride in the business community, the 7-day moving average of ammonium chloride has been above the 30-day moving average for some time now. It is expected that the price of ammonium chloride will remain strong in the short term, with a high price.
In the medium and long term, the international agricultural fertilizer market will remain tight in 2023. Although China's domestic ammonium chloride production capacity is huge and there will be no serious shortage of supply, the ammonium chloride market will have some bottom support supported by the international fertilizer market.