In 2021, the hydrogenation benzene market will fluctuate upward in the first half of the year, and fall back in the second half of the year. The price at the beginning of the year will be 6975 RMB/ton, and the price at the end of the year will be 6516.67 RMB/ton, with an annual drop of 6.57%. It can be seen from the monthly trend chart that the hydrogenation benzene market will rise in 2022 for seven months, with the largest increase of 7.69% in March; It declined in five months (0.76% in December), with the largest decline in August, 13.09%. On the whole, the market in 2022 can be divided into two stages: the first half of the year is volatile and upward, and the second half is volatile and downward.
The first half of the year was volatile and upward: during the Spring Festival, crude oil rose strongly, driving related energy and chemical products to actively keep up with the rise. The local refining enterprises in Shandong had a good shipment of pure benzene, and the price rose actively. After the festival, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene to 8100 RMB/ton, and the market discussion was active. In late February, the situation around Russia escalated, and the short-term rise of crude oil was obvious. The cost led to the rise of pure benzene, and the price rose rapidly. Pure benzene rose by more than 10% in early March. The domestic logistics situation is affected, resulting in obvious regional price difference of pure benzene. The market of hydrogenated benzene basically followed the trend of pure benzene, and rose significantly in the first half of the year.
In the second half of the year, the trend of crude oil started to fluctuate after July, and the overall trend was mainly downward. Drive the weak operation of the pure benzene market, with the softening of the external pure benzene market, and drive the domestic market to lower the focus of negotiations. On August 4, international crude oil futures fell continuously to the lowest point since February. The bad news on the market demand side played a major role. At the beginning of this month, the multinational economic data released, which showed that the PMI data of major economies in the world was weak in July, increasing the market's concern about economic recession. On August 1, the WTI fell by more than 4%. Although the supply of pure benzene was relatively tight at the same time, due to the continuous wide decline of crude oil and the significant decline of pure benzene in the external market, the support of peripheral news for pure benzene was weak, and the downstream demand for pure benzene slowed down at the same time. The downstream demand did not follow up well. The pure benzene market was under pressure at the beginning of the month. Sinopec lowered the ex factory price for three consecutive times by 700 RMB/ton, which again affected the market mentality, This led to a significant drop in the price of hydrogenated benzene during the same period, and also started a downward trend in the second half of the year for pure benzene and products related to the industrial chain.
Crude oil and pure benzene are still the main factors affecting the price of crude benzene
Crude oil: In 2022, crude oil rose in the first half of the year and fell in the second half of the year. As of the 23rd day, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 79.56 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 83.92 dollars/barrel. The Federal Reserve hinted that the interest rate increase is far from over and is not close to the end of monetary tightening. The persistent economic heat in the first half of December triggered the market's concern about the Federal Reserve's transition from "dove" to "eagle", which may disappoint the Federal Reserve's previous desire to slow down interest rate hikes. The market provided the basis for the Federal Reserve to curb inflation and maintain the path of monetary tightening, which triggered a general decline in risky assets. In addition, the overall economy was weak. The severe epidemic in Asia continued to drag down demand expectations. The outlook for energy demand was still not optimistic. Economic weakness depressed oil prices, which fell sharply in the first half of the month. In the second half of the month, in response to the price ceiling of the Group of Seven oil exports to Russia, Russia said it might cut oil production, tightening expectations to heat up the oil market. The news that the United States planned to store strategic oil reserves also brought good news to the oil market. In the second half of the month, international oil prices recovered their decline.
In 2021, Sinopec's pure benzene will be raised 26 times in the year, mainly in the first half of the year, with a cumulative increase of 4600 RMB/ton; A total of 24 reductions were made in the year, mainly in the second half of the year, with a cumulative decrease of 5400 RMB/ton. It can be seen more intuitively from the above figure that in 2022, the pure benzene market will rise for seven months and decline for five months (down in December). From the perspective of time, the rising cycle will focus on January to June in the first half of the year, and the down cycle will focus on July to December in the second half of the year (the data in December has not been released for the time being, and the downward adjustment will be about 0.1% as of December).
In the future market, the SunSirs believes that the arrival of pure benzene at East China ports is relatively good in the near future, the supply of pure benzene is slightly loose, the demand is subject to recent market shocks, the downstream receiving intention is low, the overall trading atmosphere in the market is weak, and the negotiation is limited. On the whole, it is expected that the weak consolidation trend of the pure benzene industry chain will be the main trend, and the downstream pre festival stock may bring a wave of positive support for the market to rise slightly, but the overall fluctuation space is not large. Aftermarket focus on crude oil, styrene disk trend and the commencement of benzene hydrogenation unit.
