1. Rapeseed oil market price trend
On September 27, 2021, the average domestic rapeseed oil price was 11,387 yuan/ton, and on September 1, 2021, the average domestic rapeseed oil price was 11,002 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.5%. On August 1, 2021, the average domestic rapeseed oil price was 10570 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.73% compared with September 27. On September 27, 2020, the average domestic rapeseed oil price was 9,402 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 21.11%.
2. Market analysis
In the week of September 10, the MPOB monthly report was negative. Palm oil inventories were higher than expected, output and export volume were lower than expected, and the spot price of rape oil was lowered accordingly. In the week of September 17th, bullish sentiment was high before the Mid-Autumn Festival, and the spot price of vegetable oil rose, and the spot market of palm oil futures weakened near the weekend, which dragged down the price of vegetable oil. During the holidays, the external market was unstable, the oil was under pressure after the holiday, and the spot price of vegetable oil fell. Increasing rapeseed production and reducing production is a foregone conclusion. In the later period, the amount of rapeseed and rapeseed oil arriving in Hong Kong will decrease, supporting the price of rapeseed oil. The overall spot price of rapeseed oil fluctuates strongly, and the downside is limited.
Canada, the main producing country of rapeseed, has hot and dry weather in most parts of the Canadian prairie, and rapeseed production is declining. The supply of rapeseed is expected to decrease by more than 20%, the lowest level in the past 10 years. The price of added seeds remains high, making the cost of imported rapeseed. The high level has supported domestic vegetable oil prices. The cost of imported rapeseed is upside down, and the arrival of rapeseed to Hong Kong is expected to decrease in the later period, and the supply of rapeseed oil may be low, which is conducive to the destocking of domestic rapeseed oil.
According to statistics, as of the week of September 17, 2021, the commercial inventory of vegetable oil in major oil plants in East China was approximately 381,100 tons, down 13,000 tons from the previous week, and the overall level was still at the highest level in the same period in history.
On September 27, the average price of soybean oil in the Shandong area was 10,000 yuan/ton, and on September 1, the average price of soybean oil in the Shandong area was 9,466 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.63%. On September 27, the average domestic market price of palm oil was 9760 yuan/ton, and on September 1, the average domestic market price of palm oil was 9075 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.55%.
3. Market outlook
Many places have curtailed electricity, oil plants are shut down for maintenance, and oil supply is expected to decrease. Analysis of rapeseed oil predicts that rapeseed oil prices may continue to trend strongly.